I’m planning to cross-post the free editions of my Getting to Greenlight newsletter so if you’re not interested in subscribing you’ll at least be able to see what I’m doing over there. Yesterday, though, I published one that’s a bit too long and involved to repost here. Here’s a link to the page instead:

Case Study: Blumhouse’s Secret Formula For Making Hit Movies

In a nutshell, a couple of months before the pandemic I spent some time absorbing a bunch of Jason Blum’s podcast interviews from 2015 through 2019 in hopes of discovering whether his company has a “secret formula for picking hit movies.” I did (they do), and I wrote up a mini-case study for my Slated colleagues.

The above Substack post is an adaptation of that paper. Hope it’s helpful.

I started a Substack newsletter called Getting to Greenlight this week. (I know, Substack is such a vibe right now, but I have a good reason, which will become clear in due course.) Most of my pieces there will focus on, well…how things get greenlit. But I think discussing interesting developments in the business will be On Brand, too. Hence my first post: Netflix is reportedly in talks to disrupt itself.

Jessica Toonkel reported today for The Information that Netflix recently began discussing licensing its original programming to AVOD and linear TV networks:

Netflix has discussed licensing older movies like…

(scroll down to click the link and download the PDF)

Landon and I tend to endorse the idea that “no news is good news,” but it’s sadly not applicable in this case: The slow start to the 2016 spec market we last reported in April has continued through September.

This year’s sales numbers (through September 30) remain at an 8 year low, and we’re on track to end the year in the 60 to 70 range, which is in line with 2009’s and 2010’s weak totals.

Thankfully, buying activity outside the major studios and their labels has been on par…

Damn, Hollywood. This isn’t exactly how we’d hoped to reboot the Scoggins Report.

In a perfect world there’d be a couple dozen or so spec sales to discuss by this point in the Spring Selling Season, not to mention a handful of seven figure deals pointing to a renewed interest in original material all over town, and screenwriting careers getting jumpstarted left and right.

This is not a perfect world. By a lot.

As is our way, we found a sliver of a silver lining and pointed it out at the end of the introduction of the Scorecard. But we’d be the first to say we’re whistling in the dark.

Keep the faith, Hollywood. And click anywhere in the box below to view and/or download the PDF.

Finally: The 2015 Year-End Spec Market Scorecard is complete. (All together now: “Thanks, Landon!”)

We’ve got Q1 2016 spec market numbers coming along shortly (again, thanks to Landon, who’s taking over writing the entire Report from now on), but since those who cannot remember the past are blah blah blah, it’s worth taking a beat to consider last year’s results. As usual, we noted several key takeaways in the opening, and here’s the first one to whet your appetite:

By our count, there were 93 spec script sales last year. That’s slightly up from 2014’s 90, not far off the…

The interesting thing about 2014 spec market was that the studio buyers stepped up to buy 1/3 more spec scripts than they had in 2013, but non-studio buyers stayed away in droves, resulting in low overall sales numbers compared to the previous three years.

Click anywhere in the below box to view and/or download the PDF.

Year three of our annual pilot season one-shot, assembled by the crack team of Cindy and Landon. The analysis was particularly insightful (if I say so myself), thanks to having three years of numbers to play with; if I had to choose, I’d say this is the single strongest edition of The Scoggins Report we’ve ever published.

Click anywhere in the box below to view and/or download the PDF.

Full credit goes to Cindy Kaplan for pitching and doing all the legwork to pull the Pilot Season Scorecard editions of The Scoggins Report together. This was the 2nd year we compiled it, and as we made clear in the intro, comparing year-over-year numbers made our hearts sing.

Click anywhere in the box below to view and/or download the PDF.

2013 was the last time we saw triple digit spec sales numbers. Sigh.

Nice to see the byline on this one, btw. Cindy + Landon + Jason = The Dream Team.

Click anywhere in the below box to view and/or download the PDF.

Remember when Mike Esola was at WME and used to dominate the spec and pitch sales scorecard every year? And was at the top of the pitch sales tally for the third year in a row in 2013?

Yeah. That was cool.

Click anywhere in the below box to view and/or download the PDF.

Jason Scoggins

EVP, Head of Business Development, Slated

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